TradingPerformanceTools

Trading Expectancy Calculator

Calculate expectancy per trade in currency and in R, projected forward to a month and a year at your trade frequency.

Last reviewed

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Free · No sign-up · Runs in your browser

Expectancy answers one question: what is an average trade worth? Every other performance statistic is either an input to it or a description of how the results were distributed around it.

This calculator produces it in currency and in R - multiples of the amount risked - and projects it forward at your trade frequency. The projection is deliberately simple, because the point is not to forecast a year but to show what a small edge does when it is repeated enough times.

Your numbers

Results update as you type. Nothing is sent anywhere.

Result

Expectancy per trade

$114

Expectancy in R
0.38
Expectancy per month
$4,560
Expectancy per year
$54,720
Payoff ratio
2.07:1
Break-even win rate
32.57%
Margin above break-even
12.43%
Trades to earn twice the risk
3

This tool is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not financial or investment advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results.

Expectancy in R terms is comparable across strategies and account sizes: it is what one unit of risk returns on average.

Monthly and annual figures assume the win rate and average outcomes hold and that you take the stated number of trades. They are arithmetic, not a forecast.

How to use the trading expectancy calculator

  1. Enter your win rate from a meaningful sample of trades.
  2. Enter the average win and average loss as positive numbers.
  3. Enter the amount risked per trade to get the figure in R.
  4. Enter your trades per month for the projections.

What people use this for

  • Deciding whether a strategy is worth trading at all.
  • Comparing two strategies on a single figure.
  • Seeing what trade frequency does to a small per-trade edge.
  • Working out how far the win rate sits above or below break-even.

Worked examples

Every figure below is produced by running this calculator against the example inputs, so the numbers always match the tool.

A modest but real edge

45% win rate, $620 average win, $300 average loss, $300 risked, 40 trades a month.

Expectancy per trade
$114
Expectancy in R
0.38
Expectancy per year
$54,720

A win rate just below the break-even line

Same payoff, win rate at 30%.

Expectancy per trade
-$24
Break-even win rate
32.57%
Margin above break-even
-2.57%

Expectancy in R travels between accounts

Expressed in currency, expectancy depends on position size and account size and cannot be compared with anyone else’s. Expressed in R, it describes the strategy itself.

An expectancy of 0.2R means each trade is worth a fifth of what it risks, on average, regardless of whether that is twenty dollars or two thousand. That is the figure worth tracking over time.

Frequency multiplies the edge and the variance

A small edge repeated often produces more than a large edge repeated rarely - which is the argument for higher frequency. The same arithmetic applies to costs, which is the argument against it.

The projections here multiply the per-trade figure by frequency, which is correct on average and says nothing about the path. Real months cluster, and the projection line is one the account never actually follows.

The margin above break-even is the fragile part

A strategy whose win rate sits one point above its break-even requirement is not a strategy with a small edge. It is a strategy whose edge disappears with a slight increase in costs, a small change in market conditions, or a modestly unlucky sample.

The margin figure exists to make that fragility visible before it is discovered the expensive way.

Methodology and assumptions

What this calculator does, and what it deliberately does not do.

  • Results are arithmetic on the numbers you enter. Nothing here predicts prices or connects to an exchange, broker or market data feed.
  • Nothing you type is transmitted or stored - the calculation runs entirely inside your browser.

This tool is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Nothing on this website is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security, currency, derivative or digital asset. No price is predicted and no return is promised or implied.

Trading and investing carry the risk of substantial loss, including the loss of your entire capital. Leveraged products can produce losses that exceed your deposit. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction and your circumstances.

Frequently asked questions

What expectancy should I aim for?

This site does not suggest a figure. Positive and stable across a large sample matters far more than any particular number.

Why is my expectancy negative despite a good win rate?

Because the average loss is too large relative to the average win. The break-even win rate shows what your payoff ratio actually requires.

Are the projections a forecast?

No. They multiply an average by a frequency. Results arrive in streaks, edges decay, and no account follows a straight line.

Does this include fees?

Only if you subtract them from the average win and add them to the average loss first. The statistics calculator handles fees explicitly.

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