Trading Goal Calculator
Project account growth from your expectancy and risk per trade, and find how many trades a target requires.
Last reviewed
·Free · No sign-up · Runs in your browser
Account growth from trading is the product of three things: the risk taken per trade, the expectancy of the strategy in R, and how many trades are taken. Multiply them and the growth rate follows; nothing else enters into it.
This calculator does that multiplication and projects it forward. The projection is deliberately smooth, which is the one thing a real account never is - so treat it as a sensitivity check on the inputs rather than as a plan for a year.
Result
Monthly growth
6.18%
- Annual growth
- 105.3%
- Growth per trade
- 0.2%
- Equity after one year
- $61,589
- Equity after two years
- $126,439
- Trades to reach the target
- 256
- Months to reach the target
- 8.5
- Risk per trade
- $300
- Expected value per trade
- $60
This tool is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not financial or investment advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
This is a mathematical projection of a constant edge, not a forecast. Real results arrive in streaks, edges decay, and market conditions change - a smooth compounding curve is the one thing a trading account never produces.
The projection assumes risk stays a constant percentage of equity, so position sizes grow with the account and shrink after losses.
Small changes in expectancy produce very large changes over hundreds of trades. Treat the output as a sensitivity check rather than a plan.
Projected equity
| Month | Projected equity | Growth from start |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | $31,853 | 6.18% |
| 3 | $35,910 | 19.7% |
| 6 | $42,984 | 43.28% |
| 9 | $51,452 | 71.51% |
| 12 | $61,589 | 105.3% |
| 15 | $73,722 | 145.74% |
| 18 | $88,245 | 194.15% |
| 21 | $105,630 | 252.1% |
| 24 | $126,439 | 321.46% |
How to use the trading goal calculator
- Enter your starting equity and the risk you take per trade.
- Enter your expectancy in R from a large sample of real trades.
- Enter how many trades you take per month.
- Set a target to see how many trades it implies.
What people use this for
- Testing whether a growth target is plausible at your measured edge.
- Seeing how sensitive an outcome is to a small change in expectancy.
- Comparing the effect of higher risk against a higher win rate.
- Setting a realistic timeframe rather than an aspirational one.
Worked examples
Every figure below is produced by running this calculator against the example inputs, so the numbers always match the tool.
A realistic edge at conservative risk
$30,000 account, 1% risk, 0.2R expectancy, 30 trades a month, $50,000 target.
- Monthly growth
- 6.18%
- Trades to reach the target
- 256
- Months to reach the target
- 8.5
A stronger edge with the same risk
Expectancy of 0.35R instead.
- Annual growth
- 251.77%
- Equity after one year
- $105,530
- Months to reach the target
- 4.9
The three inputs, in order of importance
Expectancy first, because a negative one compounds downward regardless of everything else. Frequency second, since a small edge repeated often beats a large edge repeated rarely. Risk per trade last, because raising it raises the growth rate and the probability of ruin together.
Traders overwhelmingly reach for the third lever, which is the only one of the three that can end the account.
A smooth curve is the least realistic part
Real equity curves have long flat stretches, sharp drawdowns and clustered wins. The projection here is an average trajectory that the account will spend almost no time actually on.
That matters because people abandon strategies during the deviations, not during the average. Pairing this projection with a drawdown calculation is the honest way to read it.
Small edges, long horizons
The compounding here is real and it is slow. A genuine edge at conservative risk produces unremarkable months and substantial years, which is a poor match for how most people arrive at trading.
The most useful thing this tool does is show what an honest edge produces on an honest timeline, which is usually less exciting and far more achievable than the alternative.
Methodology and assumptions
What this calculator does, and what it deliberately does not do.
- Growth per trade is the risk percentage multiplied by expectancy in R.
- Monthly and annual growth compound that figure at the trade frequency you enter.
- Risk is assumed to remain a constant percentage of equity, so position sizes rise with the account.
- The model assumes a stable edge and independent trades. Real trading satisfies neither exactly.
- Results are arithmetic on the numbers you enter. Nothing here predicts prices or connects to an exchange, broker or market data feed.
- Nothing you type is transmitted or stored - the calculation runs entirely inside your browser.
This tool is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Nothing on this website is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security, currency, derivative or digital asset. No price is predicted and no return is promised or implied.
Trading and investing carry the risk of substantial loss, including the loss of your entire capital. Leveraged products can produce losses that exceed your deposit. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction and your circumstances.
Frequently asked questions
What expectancy should I use?
Your own, measured from at least a hundred trades. Anything estimated or aspirational produces a projection with no information in it.
Why does it refuse a negative expectancy?
Because a negative expectancy compounds downward and no growth projection is meaningful. The honest output in that case is that the strategy needs to change.
Should I raise my risk to reach a target sooner?
It would raise the projected growth rate and the probability of ruin at the same time. The risk of ruin calculator shows the other half of that trade.
Is this a forecast of my results?
No. It compounds an average. Results arrive in streaks, edges decay, and no account follows this line.
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